EU Extends Irish Bank Guarantee

While the EU's extension is good news, it is no panacea for what ails the Irish banks we cover

Erin Davis | 30-06-10 | E-mail Article

On Tuesday, the European Commission announced that it would allow Ireland to extend its guarantee of Irish banks' liabilities until the end of the year. The guarantee had been set to expire September 29.

While this is good news, it is no panacea for what ails the Irish banks we cover, Allied Irish and Bank of Ireland. The turmoil in the eurozone and Ireland's flailing economy mean that backing by the Irish government isn't what it used to be. The spread between the yield on Irish 10-year bonds and German ones is 296 basis points today, only slightly below its peak of 306 basis points in early May. This is up from around 16 basis points before the financial crisis, but still well below the nearly 800-basis-point spread on Greek bonds. At a minimum, this means that Irish banks--even with the backing of the Irish government--face steep funding costs. But it also points to investors' doubts about the strength of the eurozone and underscores the risk that funding costs could rise further.

Moreover, other problems remain. Credit quality remains doubtful for the loans still on the banks' books (those not covered by the National Asset Management Agency scheme), and Allied Irish has yet to raise the massive amount of capital it requires.

Erin Davis is an equity analyst for Morningstar.  You can contact the author via this feedback form.
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