EU Extends Irish Bank Guarantee
While the EU's extension is good news, it is no panacea for what ails the Irish banks we cover
While this is good news, it is no panacea for what ails the Irish banks we cover, Allied Irish and Bank of Ireland. The turmoil in the eurozone and Ireland's flailing economy mean that backing by the Irish government isn't what it used to be. The spread between the yield on Irish 10-year bonds and German ones is 296 basis points today, only slightly below its peak of 306 basis points in early May. This is up from around 16 basis points before the financial crisis, but still well below the nearly 800-basis-point spread on Greek bonds. At a minimum, this means that Irish banks--even with the backing of the Irish government--face steep funding costs. But it also points to investors' doubts about the strength of the eurozone and underscores the risk that funding costs could rise further.
Moreover, other problems remain. Credit quality remains doubtful for the loans still on the banks' books (those not covered by the National Asset Management Agency scheme), and Allied Irish has yet to raise the massive amount of capital it requires.