Vodafone's 3Q sales were in line with our forecast

But If pricing can't be increased, there's downside to our long-term revenue and margin assumptions

Allan C. Nichols | 05-02-10 | E-mail Article

Vodafone reported fiscal third-quarter sales that were generally in line with our expectations, and we won't be changing our 161p fair value estimate.

Reported revenue continues to be higher than our model because of foreign currency gains and full consolidation of Vodacom, the South African subsidiary. Excluding these adjustments, revenue actually declined 2% versus our expectation of slightly positive growth for the full year. Subscriber growth continues to be solid, with more than 10 million net new customers added during the quarter, taking its total to 333 million. India dominated the increase with 8.5 million new customers, but of the 23 countries Vodafone controls, all but three showed some growth. However, most of the subscriber increase was offset by lower pricing.

We were pleased to see Turkey return to growth in the quarter. The firm's operation has really struggled there as Turkcell, the largest wireless operator, has done a great job of defending its position. However, much of Eastern Europe continues to struggle with pricing. For example, Romania nominally added new subscribers, but revenue dropped 23.8% as customers used their phones less and a pricing war has broken out as the various operators try to stimulate demand during the recession. We expect continued weakness from Eastern Europe as it struggles to recover from a prolonged economic downturn.

The firm's sales benefited from strong growth in data and broadband. Nontext data broke £1 billion in the quarter for the first time, and broadband is up to £862 million. The internal growth in these areas was 17.7% and 10%, respectively. These segments along with texting and other revenue now account for about one third of Vodafone's sales. On the off quarters, the firm provides little information on margins, although it did say that the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation margin declined in line with expectations, but free cash flow was ahead of schedule. Our biggest concern with our model remains India. While subscriber growth is right in line with our expectations, the price war that has broken out is hurting profitability. Currently the government doesn't allow consolidation of operators, and with more than a dozen, no one is making much money. If pricing can't be increased, there's downside to our long-term revenue and margin assumptions.

Allan C. Nichols is a Morningstar equity analyst.

You can contact the author via this feedback form.
© Copyright 2024 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Terms of Use        Privacy Policy        Cookie Settings        Disclosures