AstraZeneca issues disappointing guidance

MORNINGSTAR VIEW: Fourth-quarter results are in line with our expectations but 2010 EPS guidance is disappointing

Damien Conover, CFA | 28-01-10 | E-mail Article

AstraZeneca reported fourth-quarter results in line with our expectations. However the company issued disappointing 2010 earnings-per-share guidance of $5.75 to $6.15, which is slightly below our projections. Based on the company's outlook, we will likely refine our estimates, which may lead to a slightly reduced fair value estimate. Read our full analysis for further details on estimates and fair value.

In the fourth quarter, total sales increased 4% year-over-year, excluding the impact of foreign exchange rates. Sales of H1N1 vaccines and reduced generic competition for cardiovascular drug Toprol added support to the top line. We expect both of these trends to dissipate in 2010 as Watson has recently entered the generic Toprol market and other generic manufactures will likely come on line later in the year. Further, based on declining concern about H1N1, we expect sales for the vaccine in 2010 to decline.

The company's core product line generated sales in line with our expectations. Strong sales growth from cardiovascular drug Crestor and respiratory drug Symbicort offset weakness from a patent loss on oncology drug Casodex. We expect these trends to continue through 2010.

On the bottom line, cost improvements led to an earnings-per-share increase of 7% versus the prior year period. However, much of the cost containment was due to lower intangible asset impairment charges, which appear to resemble financial management rather than actual fundamental changes in operating structure. Further, the company redeployed some of the savings toward increasing marketing expenses. We believe Astra should more aggressively follow its peer group in cutting costs as the company needs to become more efficient in light of the major patent losses facing the company during the next ten years.

Damien Conover, CFA is a Morningstar equity analyst.

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