We're excited about wireless consolidation
Deutsche Telekom and France Telecom's plan to combine UK operations is an exciting one, though we're not convinced they'll receive approval
British regulators are among the strictest in the world and we're not convinced that the deal will receive regulatory approval, although a deal between the number three and number four operators may be more palatable than between number four and either number one Telefonica or number two Vodafone. The UK market is one of the most competitive wireless telecom markets in the world, so we are excited about consolidation. We think this will bring benefits to all the operators, not just DT and FT. However, for now we are not changing our fair value estimates for any of them as the deal isn't large enough to significantly move the needle on firms with enterprise values in excess of $100 billion.
In addition to the wireless businesses, DT will contribute its stake in a wireless joint venture with Hutchison and FT will add its fixed-line broadband business, which serves about 1.1 million customers. To balance the value of the operations contributed and give each partner an equal stake, DT will also chip in £1.5 billion in gross tax-loss carryforwards and £625 million cash, while FT will offload £625 million in debt onto the new venture.
Combined, the carrier will be the largest wireless provider in the UK with about 37% market share. In addition, the firm will support Virgin Wireless, the largest wireless reseller in the UK. Combined revenues in 2008 were approximately £7.7 billion, with operating profits before depreciation and amortisation of £1.7 billion. While the two firms expect synergies of the JV to have a net present value of £3.5 billion, we think this is excessive. We expect reductions in capital expenditures and headcount as back offices are combined, which will have some benefit to margins, but they will still be below the level of most European countries. We also don't expect any change in average revenue per subscriber. Both networks will operate under existing brand names for 18 months, but we expect the firms will soon adopt the well-known Orange brand rather than develop a new identity from scratch.
Allan C. Nichols, CFA, is a Morningstar stock analyst, based in the United States.