Few reasons for RBS optimism, global banking aside

Royal Bank of Scotland revealed solid results from its Global Banking and Markets division in 1Q, but we see few other reasons for optimism

Erin Davis | 13-05-09 | E-mail Article

In its first-quarter trading update, Royal Bank of Scotland said that its attributable loss for the quarter was £857 million, as good trading results were outweighed by ongoing credit deterioration. Nonetheless, we think that the slower pace of its securities write-downs and the bank's pending participation in the asset protection scheme reduce (but do not eliminate) the probability that losses will escalate to the point that RBS is nationalised entirely. We're reinstituting a fair value rating for RBS, although we're setting our uncertainty rating at our highest level.

While RBS benefited from good results in its Global Banking and Markets division, thanks to strong volumes in interest rate and currency trading, the bank's trading update otherwise gave us few reasons to be optimistic about results over the coming quarters.

Asset write-downs were just over £2 billion, driven largely by exposure to monoline insurance companies. Net interest income declined 3% over the year-ago quarter despite a 17% increase in interest-earning assets, as the higher cost of deposits drove net interest margins down to 2.7% from 3.0% in the year-ago quarter. Provisions for loan losses increased sharply to an annualised 1.33% of loans from 0.91% in the second half of 2008, as nonperforming and problem loans increased to 3.5% of loans compared to 1.4% a year ago and 2.7% at the end of 2008. We expect loan-loss charges to continue to increase as credit quality falls further.

The bank's capital ratios are strong on a reported basis, although we have questions about how far the UK government will allow losses to go before taking even more dramatic action. Tier 1 capital was 9.9% after accounting for actions taken in April to boost capital. Once RBS' participation in the asset protection scheme is finalised, this ratio is likely to increase by a hefty 5.5%.

Erin Davis is a senior equity analyst with Morningstar.com.

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