Reading the early stress test results

Why is the market cheering reports that many big banks will need more capital?

Jeremy Glaser | 07-05-09 | E-mail Article

With results of the Federal Reserve's stress test of 19 large banks expected to be released after the UK close today, rumours have been swirling as to which banks will be forced to find more capital and which are considered sound even in the most adverse scenarios. Reports so far indicate that around 10 banks will need more capital, including Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Regions Financial. Others like J.P. Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and American Express are thought to be in better shape. Firms that need a bigger capital cushion will likely get it through private equity placements, a public stock offering or a conversion of US government-owned preferred shares into common equity.

Despite the fact that current shareholders will almost undoubtedly be diluted by the new equity, the stocks have been trading up. The Financial Select Sector SPDR, which tracks major financial services firms in the US, is up over 11% the last five days, and several stocks including Wells Fargo and Bank of America have seen double-digit percent increases since word that they would need more capital leaked out. So why are investors willing to pay more for equity that is going to be diluted in the coming weeks and months?

Although it is almost impossible to discern exactly what 'Mr. Market' is thinking, we believe the major factor is the elimination of some of the uncertainty that has been plaguing the banking sector. The stress test, and subsequent capital raises, is seen by many as the US government's ultimate solution to the banking crisis, meaning the risk of even more dilutive offerings or more aggressive action like nationalisation could be becoming more remote. Furthermore, stocks such as Citigroup and Bank of America, which the market believed would be forced to issue more equity, have traded down far more than banks that were considered stronger. This means the stocks potentially have more room for growth if the magnitude of the capital raise is smaller than the market was initially expecting.

Jeremy Glaser is the Markets Editor for Morningstar.com.

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